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TY - CONF AU - Apollonio, A. AU - Jonker, M. AU - Schmidt, R. AU - Todd, B. AU - Wollmann, D. AU - Zerlauth, M. ED - Petit-Jean-Genaz, Christine ED - Arduini, Gianluigi ED - Michel, Peter ED - Schaa, Volker RW TI - Update on Predictions for Yearly Integrated Luminosity for HL-LHC based on Expected Machine Availability J2 - Proc. of IPAC2014, Dresden, Germany, June 15-20, 2014 C1 - Dresden, Germany T2 - International Particle Accelerator Conference T3 - 5 LA - english AB - Machine availability is one of the key performance indicators to reach the ambitious goals for integrated luminosity in the post Long Shutdown 1 (LS1) era. Machine availability is even more important for the future High Luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) [1]. In this paper a Monte Carlo approach has been used to predict integrated luminosity as a function of LHC machine availability. The baseline model assumptions such as fault-time distributions and machine failure rate (number of fills with stable beams dumped after a failure / total number of fills with stable beams) were deduced from the observations during LHC operation in 2012. The predictions focus on operation after LS1 and its evolution towards HL-LHC. The extrapolation of relevant parameters impacting on machine availability is outlined and their corresponding impact on fault time distributions is discussed. Results for possible future operational scenarios are presented. Finally, a sensitivity analysis with relevant model parameters like fault time and machine failure rate is discussed. PB - JACoW CP - Geneva, Switzerland SP - 1036 EP - 1038 KW - luminosity KW - operation KW - radiation KW - electronics KW - cryogenics DA - 2014/07 PY - 2014 SN - 978-3-95450-132-8 DO - 10.18429/JACoW-IPAC2014-TUPRO015 UR - http://jacow.org/ipac2014/papers/tupro015.pdf ER -